| News for advertising, marketing and media professionals |  |
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Looking ahead to 2009
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Adam Mazmanian, lead editor
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What's coming up next for the advertising and marketing industry? Part II of this IAB SmartBrief special year-end report, below, highlights our predictions and yours for what's in store for 2009. Part I, published Tuesday, looked back at the most important trends and stories of 2008.
Interactive advertising looks to be a rare growth spot in a slowing economy. The targeting potential and measureability of online advertising continue to draw advertising dollars away from traditional media. Even if, as many predict, overall U.S. ad expenditures shrink in 2009 on a year-over-year basis, most expect online advertising to grow both in terms of market share and real dollars.
The question isn't will interactive marketing grow, but where will that growth be more pronounced. Social networks, video and mobile devices continue to attract more and more dedicated users, and marketers are following their customers into these new media channels.
Read on to learn how IAB SmartBrief subscribers answered poll questions about industry trends and check out an insightful Q-and-A session with IAB President & CEO Randall Rothenberg.
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| Your Predictions |  |  |
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| Reader poll: Do you think Millennials are really a breed apart? |
| No: Don't believe the hype |
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50.23% |
| Yes: The under-30 generation is like a different species |
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49.77% |
| No opinion |
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0.00% |
| Do you think social networks will emerge as a leading online marketing venue? |
| No |
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47.62% |
| Yes |
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38.10% |
| Too early to tell |
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14.29% |
| To what extent do you think the Obama campaign won because of its creative use of new media? |
| It helped, but it was not decisive |
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52.05% |
| They wouldn't have won without it |
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39.73% |
| It had a marginal effect |
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6.85% |
| Don't know/no opinion |
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1.37% |
| Which of the following widely used media is poised to break out in 2009 in terms of monetization? |
| Social networks |
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42.31% |
| Video sharing sites |
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23.08% |
| VoIP networks |
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7.69% |
| Online payment systems |
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3.85% |
| The Big Picture |  |  |
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Q-and-A: Randall Rothenberg, IAB President & CEO
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Randall Rothenberg, IAB President and CEO
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SmartBrief: Is the Interactive industry mature enough to survive a temporary retrenchment of venture capital funding? Rothenberg: Measured interactive advertising revenues are now at about $22 billion annually in the U.S. alone, and unmeasured spending -- for example, the amount companies spend on creating, running, and improving their own sites -- is probably even more. The bottom line, literally, is that this is a very large, very dynamic industry that influences every area of our economy. Although venture funding is as important here as in any other innovation-based sector, the interactive media industry is no longer the infant child of Sand Hill Road. SmartBrief: Recent IAB stats suggest that search is thriving. How can online display adapt and compete with search in this changing environment? Rothenberg: Display advertising is also growing, and until the recession was on an even steeper growth curve than search. While that curve has certainly flattened, the fact is that the major consumer-brand marketers that had been treating online media cautiously are shifting ever-larger shares of their budgets into interactive. That will continue, especially as online video continues to mature and prove its reach to and effectiveness with consumers. The overall display market also will grow, especially as media companies start building more marketing services, such as consumer insights analysis, around their advertising and media channels. But the biggest growth will come when the marketers, agencies and publishers can reach agreement on brand metrics that simplify the planning and buying of online advertising without sacrificing accuracy, acuity and actionability of the data itself. SmartBrief: Will marketers still continue to invest in mobile and other emerging media amid the economic downturn? Rothenberg: There are two widespread, clashing perceptions in the marketing and media marketplace right now. The first is that the recession will curtail R&D spending in the newer of new media, and that mobile will take a hit. The second is that 3G smartphones like the iPhone are game-changers, and are driving unheard-of amounts of traffic to mobile sites, their content and their ads. It's a fair guess that, even if overall investment flattens out, some very adept marketers, agencies, and publishers will use the recession to leapfrog their more risk-averse competitors and achieve leadership status in mobile. SmartBrief: Will ad rates and the user base be able to underwrite high-quality video content online as has traditionally been the case on TV? Rothenberg: Yes. A recent Bain & Co. study for the IAB indicated that premium online video ad inventory is selling out, and at very high rates. As consumers increasingly look at their laptops and desktop PCs as an advanced form of television -- you might think of it as "TV with benefits" -- the attractiveness of online video to advertisers will increase. Remember, until recently, major consumer segments such as packaged goods and automotive have lagged behind the cross-industry average in terms of marketing budgets allocated online. Now that they have discovered the branding benefits of online, video will be a growth segment.        

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Product announcements appearing in SmartBrief are paid advertisements and do not
reflect actual IAB endorsements. The news reported in SmartBrief does not necessarily
reflect the official position of IAB.
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Read more at SmartBrief.com |
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A powerful Web site for SmartBrief readers including:
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| | Recent IAB SmartBrief Issues:
- Wednesday, December 10, 2008
- Tuesday, December 09, 2008
- Monday, December 08, 2008
- Friday, December 05, 2008
- Thursday, December 04, 2008
| | | Lead Editor: Adam Mazmanian
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