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Looking ahead to 2009
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Sean McMahon, editor of the SIFMA SmartBrief
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Today, SmartBrief returns with part 2 of our special year-end report. Part 1, published Tuesday, delivered a summary of the most important trends, stories and events of the past year. Part 2 provides responses to the SmartBrief reader survey and examines the issues and events that will shape our industry in 2009.
According to the SmartBrief survey (See results below), most readers believe the financial crisis will subside in the second half of 2009 or early 2010.
Even so, the financial tumult and the responses of policymakers will continue to drive the stories SmartBrief delivers in 2009. For example, how will the Obama administration handle the transition? How effectively will his team work with Congress to implement their policy initiatives? From a regulatory standpoint, how will regulatory reform reshape the rules and the agencies which oversee the industry? And, how will the markets respond to the continued implementation of the Troubled Asset Relief Program?
SmartBrief will also retain its focus on other issues that affect the markets and the firms that shape our business, as we watch to see whether the Federal Reserve will take its benchmark interest rate all the way to zero, for example. And after the failure of Lehman, which readers said was the most significant event of 2008, 2009 will answer whether this financial crisis has claimed its last major victim, or if there will be additional consolidation.
The coming year will no doubt be a riveting one for our industry. I hope you continue to turn to SIFMA SmartBrief for all the latest news and insight. 
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| Your Predictions |  | |
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| What event had the most significant impact on the industry during 2008? | | The collapse of Lehman Bros. |  | 67.61% | | The passage of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. |  | 10.80% | | Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being placed into conservatorship. |  | 8.74% | | The takeover of Bear Stearns by JPMorganChase. |  | 8.48% | | The U.S. government rescue of AIG. |  | 4.37% |
| What could have the most significant impact on the industry in 2009? | | Continued illiquidity in the securitization markets. | | 37.50% | | The new U.S. presidential administration. | | 27.17% | | Global regulatory reform. | | 17.39% | | Federal Reserve monetary-policy movements and/or a congressional stimulus package. | | 10.33% | | Modification of OTC derivatives' transparency, regulation and operations. | | 7.61% |
| When do you think the financial crisis will subside? | | The second half of 2009 | | 39.88% | | The first half of 2010 | | 25.46% | | The second half of 2010 | | 12.88% | | The first half of 2009 | | 11.96% | | 2011 or beyond | | 9.82% |
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reflect actual SIFMA endorsements. The news reported in SmartBrief does not necessarily
reflect the official position of SIFMA.
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| | Recent SIFMA SmartBrief Issues:
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- Tuesday, December 09, 2008
- Monday, December 08, 2008
- Friday, December 05, 2008
- Thursday, December 04, 2008
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